Even with three new wide releases at this weekend’s box office, and New York City finally reopening, numbers still aren’t at pre-pandemic levels, but there’s a lot of drama going on.
Let’s start withDisney’s theatrical day and date Disney+ release of animated picRaya and the Last Dragonwhich looks to be leading the weekend with a$2.5MFriday and an estimated$8.3Mat 2,045 theaters. These numbers are slightly less than the $3M Friday and $9M-$10M we were hearing about, and they’re definitely less than the $14.1M that Warner Bros’ same day HBO Max release ofTom & Jerryposted last weekend with $14.1M.Raya‘s opening weekend is also less than the 3-day fromCroods: A New Age‘s Thanksgiving opening stretch which was $9.7M. And that’s definitely because Disney did not reach a deal with No. 3 chain Cinemark, as we first told you (thus, losing around 250 bookings), Harkins, and Canada’s Cineplex. Even with New York City open,Rayaisn’t the type of movie that would rally in the city like say a Marvel movie.
Even though these numbers onRayaaren’t as robust (for the pandemic) as we saw yesterday, the release is striking plenty of fear for rival distributors and for exhibition; particularly after CEO Bob Chapek’s recent statements Monday at virtual investment conference hosted by Morgan Stanley in which he said things like The consumer is probably more impatient than they’ve ever been before” and that given how the pandemic has brought a number of movies into the home, he’s not sure “there’s going back” to the way business way. Even though Chapek said, “We certainly don’t want to do anything like cut the legs off a theatrical exhibition run,” many are concerned all of this is code for Disney moving forward with their theatrical day and date Disney+ model; and thatBlack Widowmay emulate the same distribution path asRayaon May 7. Keep in mind that even if Los Angeles is reopened by then, and auditorium capacity restrictions ease, Disney still needs the rest of the world to move ahead withBlack Widowand make the $1 billion grossing film that everyone wants to see.
What’s scaring many aboutRayais that Disney gets to keep 100% of whatever they’re making from the $30 Disney+ PVOD purchase ofRaya.Disney doesn’t have to split that PVOD revenue with any exhibitor. It was explained to me thatRaya‘s $30 price point on Disney+ is roughly equivalent to the rental that Disney would get from five or six movie tickets. Wow. While I’ve heard Warner Bros. has been a partner with exhibition, and has made a deal on terms for their same day HBO Max titles, Disney hasn’t budged.
I’m told that Disney’s terms forRayawere a two-week minimum play with a scale that starts at a 50% rental if the film grosses ultimately between $0 and $37.5M, and then 51% if the domestic gross finals between $37.5M and $50M. While those terms aren’t stiff in a regular marketplace, we’re still in a pandemic, and people still aren’t flocking to the movies in great numbers, plus movie theaters have to compete with the whole Disney+ PVOD of it all. How fair is that?
Let’s see what happens withBlack Widow,and if Disney emulates aRayatheatrical-Disney+ distribution pattern for that. I would like to give Chapek the benefit of the doubt. Back at December’s Disney Investor Day he clearly emphasized that a robust Disney+ slate wouldn’t be possible without the power of the big screen and the franchises it has created. At the same time,he’s the guy who crushed the theatrical-DVD window, starting withAlice in Wonderlandback in 2010; and the studio still walked away with a $1.025 billion global gross on that movie. Disney didn’t burn down the house to keep warm back then, and I still don’t think they will. Currently, the studio says thatBlack Widowis still going theatrical on May 7, and exhibition hasn’t heard otherwise, they’re just very suspicious since there weren’t any trailers for the Marvel movie onRayathis past weekend, only those for Disney’s May 28 theatrical releaseCruella.
From a sheer box office optics point of view, one can argue that Disney left money on the table withRayawith boxing out Cinemark and Canada’s Cineplex. Why would you do that with a film likeRayathat has an A CinemaScore, is 95% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and fantastic PostTrak audience exits of 93% with an 80% recommend from the general crowd?
Only Disney knows the answer to that question. When it comes to the potential non-reporting of Disney+RayaPVOD figures, no news is good news. For anything greater would throw the motion picture distribution model off its axis.
Warners isn’t reporting numbers onTom & Jerrytoday but we hear it’s headed for a No. 2 slot in its second weekend at 2,563 locations (+88) with an industry estimated Friday of $1.6M, -60% from a week ago, and 3-day of$6.75M, -52% for a ten-day running total of $23.1M. There was chatter among rivals heading into the weekend thatTom & Jerrycould possibly steal it fromRayagiven how that film didn’t have Cinemark; that doesn’t look to be the case, and the fall on these theatrical-HBO Max titles are looking to be steeper in weekend 2. Remember, Wonder Woman 1984 dropped 67%, and that was over a New Year’s Weekend, typically a big time for moviegoing.
Lionsgate’s much delayed $100M YA gambleChaos Walkingstarring Daisy Ridley and Tom Holland is poised to lose money just like any big wide release coming out during the pandemic where 50% of all 5,8K U.S. and Canadian theaters are closed. Industry estimates show the movie with a$1.3MFriday and 3-day of$3.7M. The diagnostics on the film with a B CinemaScore, horrible reviews at 24% Rotten, and a PostTrak of 67% and a 41% recommend indicate the movie was never going to rally even in a healthy marketplace, so the studio decided to go. The pic’s opening weekend is in sync with what box office sources were projecting heading into the weekend.
In fourth place is Focus Features’ Eddie Huang movieBoogiewhich did $430K at 1,252 locations yesterday on its way to a 3-day of$1.26M. Pic landed a C+ CinemaScore.
